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Fratria vs Sportist G.Toshevo — Third League - Northeast 2018

Fratria
Fratria
CANC
15:00
Sportist G.Toshevo
Sportist G.Toshevo
8/19/2023Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Northeast - 2Stadion Albena-1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Fratria89%
×Draw8%
Sportist G.Toshevo4%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fratria
3.68
Sportist G.Toshevo
0.69

Fratria creates 433% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 40 away

creates per match

Fratria
3.23
Sportist G.Toshevo
0.75

allows per match

Fratria
0.62
Sportist G.Toshevo
4.13

finishing

Fratria+0.00on par
Sportist G.Toshevo+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fratria ↓

Sportist G.Toshevo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–13%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–011%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (11%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Fratria or draw
96%
Fratria or Sportist G.Toshevo
92%
Draw or Sportist G.Toshevo
11%

Winning margin

Fratria wins by 2+
74%
Sportist G.Toshevo wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Fratria 1+ goals
97%
Fratria 2+ goals
87%
Fratria 3+ goals
69%
Sportist G.Toshevo 1+ goals
50%
Sportist G.Toshevo 2+ goals
15%
Sportist G.Toshevo 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Fratria (draw refunded)
96%
Sportist G.Toshevo (draw refunded)
4%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fratria at home — creates 3.23, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

Sportist G.Toshevo away — creates 0.75, concedes 4.13 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fratria attack 3.23 + Sportist G.Toshevo defence 4.13 → ÷2 → 3.68

Sportist G.Toshevo attack 0.75 + Fratria defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 89%?"

Fratria scores more
89%
level
8%
Sportist G.Toshevo scores more
4%

Fratria at 89% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 89% does not mean "Fratria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Fratria vs Sportist G.Toshevo — Match Preview

Fratria face Sportist G.Toshevo on August 19, 2023 in this Third League - Northeast fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Fratria host Sportist G.Toshevo at Stadion Albena-1.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.