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Fratria vs Septemvri Tervel — Third League - Northeast 2018

Fratria
Fratria
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Septemvri Tervel
Septemvri Tervel
9/2/2023Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Northeast - 4Stadion Albena-1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Fratria59%
×Draw21%
Septemvri Tervel20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fratria
2.06
Septemvri Tervel
1.11

Fratria creates 86% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 104 away

creates per match

Fratria
3.23
Septemvri Tervel
1.60

allows per match

Fratria
0.62
Septemvri Tervel
0.88

finishing

Fratria+0.00on par
Septemvri Tervel+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fratria ↓

Septemvri Tervel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Fratria or draw
80%
Fratria or Septemvri Tervel
79%
Draw or Septemvri Tervel
41%

Winning margin

Fratria wins by 2+
36%
Septemvri Tervel wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Fratria 1+ goals
87%
Fratria 2+ goals
61%
Fratria 3+ goals
34%
Septemvri Tervel 1+ goals
67%
Septemvri Tervel 2+ goals
30%
Septemvri Tervel 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Fratria (draw refunded)
75%
Septemvri Tervel (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fratria at home — creates 3.23, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

Septemvri Tervel away — creates 1.60, concedes 0.88 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fratria attack 3.23 + Septemvri Tervel defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 2.06

Septemvri Tervel attack 1.60 + Fratria defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Fratria scores more
59%
level
21%
Septemvri Tervel scores more
20%

Fratria at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Fratria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northeast: Fratria 2–1 Septemvri Tervel

Fratria beat Septemvri Tervel 2-1 in Third League - Northeast on September 2, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Albena-1 in Albena.