Fratria vs Dunav Ruse — Second League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 35+ matches
Fratria45%
Dunav Ruse30%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Fratria creates 28% more chances
Season form · 35 home / 69 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under50
- Over50
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes54
- No46
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Fratria ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Fratria at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.14 · 35 matches
Dunav Ruse away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.14 · 69 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Fratria attack 1.86 + Dunav Ruse defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.50
Dunav Ruse attack 1.19 + Fratria defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.17
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 45%?"
Fratria at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 45% does not mean "Fratria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
4 previous meetings · small sampleDunav Ruse
Yantra 2019Fratria
Vihren
CSKA Sofia II
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
Ludogorets II
Marek
Hebar 1918
Pirin Blagoevgrad
Spartak Pleven
Sportist Svoge
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Sevlievo
FK Minyor Pernik
BelasitsaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Fratria host Dunav Ruse on Saturday, 23 November 2024 at 12:30. The match is part of the Second League 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Fratria vs Dunav Ruse
Dunav Ruse beat Fratria 4-0 in Second League on November 23, 2024.
Goals: K. Bemanga (5', 31'), K. Hadzhiev (14'), L. Pahama (50').
The match was played at Stadion Albena-1 in Albena.