Fratria 0–2 CSKA Sofia II: Result & Stats

Fratria

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

CSKA Sofia II

8/12/2024

Second League · Round 4Stadion Albena-1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Fratria45%

×Draw25%

CSKA Sofia II30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FratriaExpected goals in this matchCSKA Sofia II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.26

Fratria

1.60

CSKA Sofia II

1.26

Fratria creates 27% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 39 away

1.86

creates per match

1.38

1.14

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Fratria

1.86

CSKA Sofia II

1.38

allows per match

Fratria

1.14

CSKA Sofia II

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fratria+0.00on par

CSKA Sofia II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fratria ↓

CSKA Sofia II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Fratria or draw

70%

Fratria or CSKA Sofia II

75%

Draw or CSKA Sofia II

55%

Winning margin

Fratria wins by 2+

23%

CSKA Sofia II wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Fratria 1+ goals

80%

Fratria 2+ goals

47%

Fratria 3+ goals

22%

CSKA Sofia II 1+ goals

72%

CSKA Sofia II 2+ goals

36%

CSKA Sofia II 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Fratria (draw refunded)

60%

CSKA Sofia II (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fratria at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.14 · 35 matches

CSKA Sofia II away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.33 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fratria attack 1.86 + CSKA Sofia II defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.60

CSKA Sofia II attack 1.38 + Fratria defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Fratria scores more

45%

level

25%

CSKA Sofia II scores more

30%

Fratria at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Fratria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff