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Fraserburgh vs Montrose — FA Cup 2019

Fraserburgh
Fraserburgh
FT
2 – 4
HT: 2 – 2
Montrose
Montrose
4/3/2021FA CupFA Cup · 3rd RoundBellslea Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Fraserburgh41%
×Draw22%
Montrose37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fraserburgh
1.90
Montrose
1.80

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

creates per match

Fraserburgh
2.13
Montrose
2.22

allows per match

Fraserburgh
1.38
Montrose
1.67

finishing

Fraserburgh+0.00on par
Montrose+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fraserburgh ↓

Montrose →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Fraserburgh or draw
63%
Fraserburgh or Montrose
78%
Draw or Montrose
59%

Winning margin

Fraserburgh wins by 2+
22%
Montrose wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Fraserburgh 1+ goals
85%
Fraserburgh 2+ goals
56%
Fraserburgh 3+ goals
29%
Montrose 1+ goals
83%
Montrose 2+ goals
54%
Montrose 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Fraserburgh (draw refunded)
53%
Montrose (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fraserburgh at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Montrose away — creates 2.22, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fraserburgh attack 2.13 + Montrose defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.90

Montrose attack 2.22 + Fraserburgh defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Fraserburgh scores more
41%
level
22%
Montrose scores more
37%

Fraserburgh at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Fraserburgh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Fraserburgh 2–4 Montrose

Montrose beat Fraserburgh 4-2 in FA Cup on April 3, 2021.

The match was played at Bellslea Park in Fraserburgh.