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Fraserburgh vs Brora Rangers — League #730 2026

Fraserburgh
Fraserburgh
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Brora Rangers
Brora Rangers
S. Butcher 90'
S. Barbour 31'
J. Wallace 81'
T. Dingwall 38'
J. MacRae 8'
9/7/2024League #730League #730 · Highland League - 9Bellslea Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Fraserburgh25%
×Draw21%
Brora Rangers54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fraserburgh
1.36
Brora Rangers
2.11

Brora Rangers creates 55% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 23 away

creates per match

Fraserburgh
1.50
Brora Rangers
3.22

allows per match

Fraserburgh
1.00
Brora Rangers
1.22

finishing

Fraserburgh+0.00on par
Brora Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fraserburgh ↓

Brora Rangers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Fraserburgh or draw
46%
Fraserburgh or Brora Rangers
79%
Draw or Brora Rangers
75%

Winning margin

Fraserburgh wins by 2+
10%
Brora Rangers wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Fraserburgh 1+ goals
74%
Fraserburgh 2+ goals
39%
Fraserburgh 3+ goals
16%
Brora Rangers 1+ goals
88%
Brora Rangers 2+ goals
62%
Brora Rangers 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Fraserburgh (draw refunded)
31%
Brora Rangers (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fraserburgh at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Brora Rangers away — creates 3.22, concedes 1.22 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fraserburgh attack 1.50 + Brora Rangers defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.36

Brora Rangers attack 3.22 + Fraserburgh defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 2.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Fraserburgh scores more
25%
level
21%
Brora Rangers scores more
54%

Brora Rangers at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Brora Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
J. MacRae
31'
S. Barbour
38'
T. Dingwall
81'
J. Wallace
90'
S. Butcher

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fraserburgh vs Brora Rangers

Brora Rangers beat Fraserburgh 3-2 in League #730 on September 7, 2024.

Goals: J. MacRae (8'), S. Barbour (31'), T. Dingwall (38'), J. Wallace (81'), S. Butcher (90').

The match was played at Bellslea Park in Fraserburgh.