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Fraserburgh vs Brechin — League #730 2026

Fraserburgh
Fraserburgh
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Brechin
Brechin
3/7/2026League #730League #730

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Fraserburgh31%
×Draw27%
Brechin42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fraserburgh
1.09
Brechin
1.31

Brechin creates 20% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 13 away

creates per match

Fraserburgh
1.50
Brechin
1.62

allows per match

Fraserburgh
1.00
Brechin
0.69

finishing

Fraserburgh+0.00on par
Brechin+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fraserburgh ↓

Brechin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Fraserburgh or draw
58%
Fraserburgh or Brechin
73%
Draw or Brechin
69%

Winning margin

Fraserburgh wins by 2+
12%
Brechin wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Fraserburgh 1+ goals
66%
Fraserburgh 2+ goals
30%
Fraserburgh 3+ goals
10%
Brechin 1+ goals
73%
Brechin 2+ goals
38%
Brechin 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Fraserburgh (draw refunded)
43%
Brechin (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fraserburgh at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Brechin away — creates 1.62, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fraserburgh attack 1.50 + Brechin defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.09

Brechin attack 1.62 + Fraserburgh defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Fraserburgh scores more
31%
level
27%
Brechin scores more
42%

Brechin at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Brechin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fraserburgh vs Brechin

Fraserburgh beat Brechin 1-0 in League #730 on March 7, 2026.