Franke 0–5 Skövde AIK: Result & Stats

Franke

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 1

Skövde AIK

M. Agerborn 87', 58', 35'

O. Lennerskog 80'

D. Frisk 65'

8/23/2023

Svenska Cupen · 2nd RoundRåby IP 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Franke12%

×Draw18%

Skövde AIK70%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FrankeExpected goals in this matchSkövde AIK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.78

2.23

Franke

0.78

Skövde AIK

2.23

Skövde AIK creates 186% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 11 away

0.00

creates per match

1.45

3.00

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Franke

0.00

Skövde AIK

1.45

allows per match

Franke

3.00

Skövde AIK

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Franke+0.00on par

Skövde AIK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Franke ↓

Skövde AIK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–111%

0–212%

0–39%

0–45%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–13%

2–24%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Franke or draw

30%

Franke or Skövde AIK

82%

Draw or Skövde AIK

88%

Winning margin

Franke wins by 2+

3%

Skövde AIK wins by 2+

46%

Team goals

Franke 1+ goals

54%

Franke 2+ goals

18%

Franke 3+ goals

4%

Skövde AIK 1+ goals

89%

Skövde AIK 2+ goals

65%

Skövde AIK 3+ goals

38%

Draw no bet

Franke (draw refunded)

14%

Skövde AIK (draw refunded)

86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Franke at home — creates 0.00, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

Skövde AIK away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Franke attack 0.00 + Skövde AIK defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 0.78

Skövde AIK attack 1.45 + Franke defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Franke scores more

12%

level

18%

Skövde AIK scores more

70%

Skövde AIK at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Skövde AIK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

M. Agerborn

46'

B. Beyan← A. Sheikomar

46'

G. Elofsson← S. Sörman

58'

M. Agerborn

59'

C. Lindblad← E. Jirlind

65'

D. Frisk

72'

A. Nordström Käll← R. Lindemann

72'

L. Pennanen← G. Torseng

72'

D. Massaro← C. Siljander

80'

O. Lennerskog

87'

M. Agerborn

Franke

Skövde

▼

⚽

⚽

⚽3

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: D. Malmlöf

46'▲B. Beyan←▼A. Sheikomar

59'▲C. Lindblad←▼E. Jirlind

72'▲A. Nordström Käll←▼R. Lindemann

72'▲L. Pennanen←▼G. Torseng

72'▲D. Massaro←▼C. Siljander

Franke substitutes

BeyanLindbladKällPennanenMassaroAnsellMånsson

Manager: T. Linderoth

46'▲G. Elofsson←▼S. Sörman

Skövde AIK substitutes

ElofssonBasicYusufAbrahamEngströmVidjeskogLindell