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Francs Borains vs Seraing United — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Francs Borains
Francs Borains
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Seraing United
Seraing United
Unknown 76', 58', 42', 26'
Unknown 82'
T. Lockman 28'
4/24/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Francs Borains63%
×Draw18%
Seraing United19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Francs Borains
2.55
Seraing United
1.35

Francs Borains creates 89% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 15 away

creates per match

Francs Borains
2.83
Seraing United
0.87

allows per match

Francs Borains
1.83
Seraing United
2.27

finishing

Francs Borains+0.00on par
Seraing United+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Francs Borains ↓

Seraing United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Francs Borains or draw
81%
Francs Borains or Seraing United
82%
Draw or Seraing United
37%

Winning margin

Francs Borains wins by 2+
42%
Seraing United wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Francs Borains 1+ goals
92%
Francs Borains 2+ goals
72%
Francs Borains 3+ goals
46%
Seraing United 1+ goals
74%
Seraing United 2+ goals
39%
Seraing United 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Francs Borains (draw refunded)
77%
Seraing United (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Francs Borains at home — creates 2.83, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

Seraing United away — creates 0.87, concedes 2.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Francs Borains attack 2.83 + Seraing United defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.55

Seraing United attack 0.87 + Francs Borains defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Francs Borains scores more
63%
level
18%
Seraing United scores more
19%

Francs Borains at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Francs Borains will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'
28'
T. Lockman
42'
58'
76'
82'
Francs
Seraing
Yves Vanderhaeghe
Manager: Yves Vanderhaeghe
Kevin Caprasse
Manager: Kevin Caprasse

Match Recap: Francs Borains vs Seraing United

Francs Borains beat Seraing United 4-2 in Friendlies Clubs on April 24, 2026.

Goals: ? (26', 42', 58', 76', 82'), T. Lockman (28').