France 4–0 Ukraine: Result & Stats | League #32

France

FT

4 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ukraine

H. Ekitike 88'

K. Mbappe 83', 55' (pen)

M. Olise 76'

11/13/2025

League #32 · Group Stage - 9Parc des Princes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

France66%

×Draw18%

Ukraine15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FranceExpected goals in this matchUkraine

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.35

1.03

France

2.35

Ukraine

1.03

France creates 128% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

2.50

creates per match

1.40

0.67

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

France

2.50

Ukraine

1.40

allows per match

France

0.67

Ukraine

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

France+0.00on par

Ukraine+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

France ↓

Ukraine →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

France or draw

85%

France or Ukraine

82%

Draw or Ukraine

34%

Winning margin

France wins by 2+

44%

Ukraine wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

France 1+ goals

90%

France 2+ goals

68%

France 3+ goals

41%

Ukraine 1+ goals

64%

Ukraine 2+ goals

28%

Ukraine 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

France (draw refunded)

81%

Ukraine (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

France at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

Ukraine away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

France attack 2.50 + Ukraine defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.35

Ukraine attack 1.40 + France defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

France scores more

66%

level

18%

Ukraine scores more

15%

France at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "France will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

M. Olise

France · M

10.0

Match Events

31'

Manu Koné

52'

Yehor NazarynaPenalty cancelled

54'

Taras Mykhavko

55'

K. MbappePenalty

64'

V. Vanat← O. Gutsulyak

64'

M. Shaparenko← O. Ocheretko

67'

H. Ekitike← B. Barcola

68'

M. Akliouche← R. Cherki

74'

Yehor Yarmolyuk

75'

V. Tsygankov← R. Yaremchuk

75'

O. Zubkov← T. Mykhavko

76'

M. Olise↳ N. Kante

80'

W. Zaire-Emery← M. Kone

83'

K. Mbappe

85'

N. Voloshyn← Y. Yarmolyuk

88'

H. Ekitike↳ K. Mbappe

89'

M. Gusto← J. Kounde

89'

C. Nkunku← M. Olise

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FranceUkraine

Overview

71%Possession29%

25Total Shots1

2.70Expected Goals (xG)0.00

7Corners0

9Fouls10

Shots

25Total Shots1

10On Target0

8Off Target0

7Blocked1

11Inside Box1

14Outside Box0

Passing

71%Possession29%

718Total Passes299

663Accurate Passes222

92%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

0Saves6

Discipline

9Fouls10

1Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1