Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Wuhan Zall vs Dalian Transcendence — League One 2018

Wuhan Zall
Wuhan Zall
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Dalian Transcendence
Dalian Transcendence
11/3/2018League OneLeague One · Round 30Zhongnan University Stadium (Wuhan)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Wuhan Zall69%
×Draw19%
Dalian Transcendence12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wuhan Zall
2.13
Dalian Transcendence
0.74

Wuhan Zall creates 188% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Wuhan Zall
2.27
Dalian Transcendence
0.80

allows per match

Wuhan Zall
0.67
Dalian Transcendence
2.00

finishing

Wuhan Zall+0.00on par
Dalian Transcendence+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wuhan Zall ↓

Dalian Transcendence →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Wuhan Zall or draw
88%
Wuhan Zall or Dalian Transcendence
81%
Draw or Dalian Transcendence
31%

Winning margin

Wuhan Zall wins by 2+
45%
Dalian Transcendence wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Wuhan Zall 1+ goals
88%
Wuhan Zall 2+ goals
63%
Wuhan Zall 3+ goals
35%
Dalian Transcendence 1+ goals
52%
Dalian Transcendence 2+ goals
17%
Dalian Transcendence 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Wuhan Zall (draw refunded)
85%
Dalian Transcendence (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wuhan Zall at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

Dalian Transcendence away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wuhan Zall attack 2.27 + Dalian Transcendence defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.13

Dalian Transcendence attack 0.80 + Wuhan Zall defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Wuhan Zall scores more
69%
level
19%
Dalian Transcendence scores more
12%

Wuhan Zall at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Wuhan Zall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Wuhan Zall 3–0 Dalian Transcendence

Wuhan Zall beat Dalian Transcendence 3-0 in League One on November 3, 2018.

The match was played at Zhongnan University Stadium (Wuhan).