France 3–1 Northern Ireland: Result & Stats

France

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Northern Ireland

M. Olise 74', 49', 43'

P. Kelly 64'

6/8/2026

Friendlies · Friendly InternationalDecathlon Arena - Stade Pierre Mauroy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

France58%

×Draw22%

Northern Ireland20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FranceExpected goals in this matchNorthern Ireland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.06

France

1.96

Northern Ireland

1.06

France creates 85% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 15 away

2.32

creates per match

1.13

1.00

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

France

2.32

Northern Ireland

1.13

allows per match

France

1.00

Northern Ireland

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

France+0.00on par

Northern Ireland+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

France ↓

Northern Ireland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

France or draw

80%

France or Northern Ireland

78%

Draw or Northern Ireland

42%

Winning margin

France wins by 2+

34%

Northern Ireland wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

France 1+ goals

86%

France 2+ goals

58%

France 3+ goals

31%

Northern Ireland 1+ goals

65%

Northern Ireland 2+ goals

29%

Northern Ireland 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

France (draw refunded)

74%

Northern Ireland (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

France at home — creates 2.32, concedes 1.00 · 22 matches

Northern Ireland away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

France attack 2.32 + Northern Ireland defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.96

Northern Ireland attack 1.13 + France defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

France scores more

58%

level

22%

Northern Ireland scores more

20%

France at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "France will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

M. Olise

France · M

10.0

Match Events

43'

M. Olise

46'

M. Lacroix← W. Saliba

46'

M. Gusto← J. Kounde

49'

M. Olise

62'

L. Digne← T. Hernandez

62'

R. Cherki← O. Dembele

62'

B. Barcola← D. Doue

63'

E. Galbraith← A. McCann

64'

P. Kelly↳ S. Charles

74'

M. Olise↳ M. Gusto

79'

J. Magennis← J. Donley

79'

J. McDonnell← I. Price

79'

C. O'Neill← P. Kelly

82'

M. Akliouche← M. Olise

82'

M. Kone← A. Tchouameni

90+1'

N. Kante← A. Rabiot

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FranceNorthern

Overview

73%Possession27%

27Total Shots4

5Corners1

6Fouls7

Shots

27Total Shots4

5On Target2

13Off Target2

9Blocked0

15Inside Box3

12Outside Box1

Passing

73%Possession27%

830Total Passes318

769Accurate Passes255

93%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

6Fouls7

5Offsides0