Shenzhen Ruby FC 5–0 Zhejiang Yiteng

Shenzhen Ruby FC

FT

5 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Zhejiang Yiteng

11/3/2018

League One · Round 30Shenzhen City Stadium (Shenzhen)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Shenzhen Ruby FC65%

×Draw19%

Zhejiang Yiteng16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shenzhen Ruby FCExpected goals in this matchZhejiang Yiteng

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.26

1.04

Shenzhen Ruby FC

2.26

Zhejiang Yiteng

1.04

Shenzhen Ruby FC creates 117% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

2.40

creates per match

0.80

1.27

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

Shenzhen Ruby FC

2.40

Zhejiang Yiteng

0.80

allows per match

Shenzhen Ruby FC

1.27

Zhejiang Yiteng

2.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shenzhen Ruby FC+0.00on par

Zhejiang Yiteng+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shenzhen Ruby FC ↓

Zhejiang Yiteng →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Shenzhen Ruby FC or draw

84%

Shenzhen Ruby FC or Zhejiang Yiteng

81%

Draw or Zhejiang Yiteng

35%

Winning margin

Shenzhen Ruby FC wins by 2+

42%

Zhejiang Yiteng wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Shenzhen Ruby FC 1+ goals

89%

Shenzhen Ruby FC 2+ goals

66%

Shenzhen Ruby FC 3+ goals

39%

Zhejiang Yiteng 1+ goals

65%

Zhejiang Yiteng 2+ goals

28%

Zhejiang Yiteng 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Shenzhen Ruby FC (draw refunded)

80%

Zhejiang Yiteng (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shenzhen Ruby FC at home — creates 2.40, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

Zhejiang Yiteng away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 2.40 + Zhejiang Yiteng defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.26

Zhejiang Yiteng attack 0.80 + Shenzhen Ruby FC defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Shenzhen Ruby FC scores more

65%

level

19%

Zhejiang Yiteng scores more

16%

Shenzhen Ruby FC at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Shenzhen Ruby FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff