France 2–3 Colombia: Result & Stats | Friendlies

France

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Colombia

T. Lemar 26'

O. Giroud 11'

J. Quintero 85' (pen)

R. Falcao 62'

L. Muriel 28'

3/23/2018

Friendlies · Friendlies 1Stade de France

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

France43%

×Draw24%

Colombia34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FranceExpected goals in this matchColombia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.45

France

1.66

Colombia

1.45

France creates 14% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 20 away

2.32

creates per match

1.90

1.00

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

France

2.32

Colombia

1.90

allows per match

France

1.00

Colombia

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

France+0.00on par

Colombia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

France ↓

Colombia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

France or draw

66%

France or Colombia

76%

Draw or Colombia

57%

Winning margin

France wins by 2+

22%

Colombia wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

France 1+ goals

81%

France 2+ goals

49%

France 3+ goals

23%

Colombia 1+ goals

77%

Colombia 2+ goals

42%

Colombia 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

France (draw refunded)

56%

Colombia (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

France at home — creates 2.32, concedes 1.00 · 22 matches

Colombia away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.00 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

France attack 2.32 + Colombia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.66

Colombia attack 1.90 + France defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

France scores more

43%

level

24%

Colombia scores more

34%

France at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "France will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

O. Giroud

26'

T. Lemar↳ K. Mbappé

28'

L. Muriel↳ J. Rodríguez

33'

Santiago Arias

34'

Lucas Digne

58'

Abel Aguilar

62'

R. Falcao↳ J. Rodríguez

65'

P. Pogba← B. Matuidi

66'

O. Dembélé← K. Mbappé

67'

J. Lerma← A. Aguilar

68'

D. Zapata← R. Falcao

73'

W. Ben Yedder← O. Giroud

76'

L. Hernández← L. Digne

77'

J. Izquierdo← L. Muriel

83'

F. Thauvin← A. Griezmann

83'

J. Quintero← J. Rodríguez

85'

J. QuinteroPenalty

90'

W. Barrios← M. Uribe

Possession

Shots

Statistics

FranceColombia

Overview

53%Possession47%

7Total Shots8

2Corners2

12Fouls17

Shots

7Total Shots8

4On Target4

3Off Target4

Passing

53%Possession47%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls17

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

5Offsides1