France U23 W 1–0 Scotland U23 W: Result & Stats

France U23 W

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Scotland U23 W

L. Calba 13'

4/12/2026

Friendlies Women · Friendly International Women

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

France U23 W56%

×Draw22%

Scotland U23 W22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

France U23 WExpected goals in this matchScotland U23 W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.97

1.14

France U23 W

1.97

Scotland U23 W

1.14

France U23 W creates 73% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 4 away

2.18

creates per match

1.00

1.27

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

France U23 W

2.18

Scotland U23 W

1.00

allows per match

France U23 W

1.27

Scotland U23 W

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

France U23 W+0.00on par

Scotland U23 W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

France U23 W ↓

Scotland U23 W →

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

France U23 W or draw

78%

France U23 W or Scotland U23 W

78%

Draw or Scotland U23 W

44%

Winning margin

France U23 W wins by 2+

33%

Scotland U23 W wins by 2+

Team goals

France U23 W 1+ goals

86%

France U23 W 2+ goals

58%

France U23 W 3+ goals

31%

Scotland U23 W 1+ goals

68%

Scotland U23 W 2+ goals

32%

Scotland U23 W 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

France U23 W (draw refunded)

72%

Scotland U23 W (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

France U23 W at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

Scotland U23 W away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

France U23 W attack 2.18 + Scotland U23 W defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.97

Scotland U23 W attack 1.00 + France U23 W defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 56%?"

France U23 W scores more

56%

level

22%

Scotland U23 W scores more

22%

France U23 W at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "France U23 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

L. Calba

France

Scotland

⚽

France U23 W substitutes

FernandesGautierGuillyMpomeMendyDiazHannequinLiaigreSwierotMendyChossenotteEffa

Scotland U23 W substitutes

Maher-RodgersWearingPenmanHandleyBlyth-ClarkGreenwoodJardineGibb

Friendlies Women: France U23 W 1–0 Scotland U23 W

France U23 W beat Scotland U23 W 1-0 in Friendlies Women on April 12, 2026.

Goals: L. Calba (13').

France U23 W vs Scotland U23 W — Friendlies Women 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Friendlies Women: France U23 W 1–0 Scotland U23 W