France U23 W 2–2 Norway U23 W: Result & Stats

France U23 W

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Norway U23 W

C. Effa Effa 85'

A. Connesson 24'

I. Omarsdottir 80'

M. Authen 34'

10/27/2025

Friendlies Women · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

France U23 W54%

×Draw24%

Norway U23 W22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

France U23 WExpected goals in this matchNorway U23 W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.01

France U23 W

1.72

Norway U23 W

1.01

France U23 W creates 70% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 4 away

2.18

creates per match

0.75

1.27

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

France U23 W

2.18

Norway U23 W

0.75

allows per match

France U23 W

1.27

Norway U23 W

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

France U23 W+0.00on par

Norway U23 W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

France U23 W ↓

Norway U23 W →

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

France U23 W or draw

78%

France U23 W or Norway U23 W

76%

Draw or Norway U23 W

46%

Winning margin

France U23 W wins by 2+

30%

Norway U23 W wins by 2+

Team goals

France U23 W 1+ goals

82%

France U23 W 2+ goals

51%

France U23 W 3+ goals

25%

Norway U23 W 1+ goals

64%

Norway U23 W 2+ goals

27%

Norway U23 W 3+ goals

Draw no bet

France U23 W (draw refunded)

71%

Norway U23 W (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

France U23 W at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

Norway U23 W away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

France U23 W attack 2.18 + Norway U23 W defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.72

Norway U23 W attack 0.75 + France U23 W defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 54%?"

France U23 W scores more

54%

level

24%

Norway U23 W scores more

22%

France U23 W at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "France U23 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

34'

80'

85'

France

Norway

⚽

⚽

⚽

France U23 W substitutes

16Fernandes23Gautier4Hocine5Rastocle12Bizet14Liaigre18Mossard19Swierot20Stievenart21Chossenotte22Effa

Norway U23 W substitutes

12Erichsen8Osteras13Melgard15Arnesen16Brekken17Brunes18Slemmen

Match Recap: France U23 W vs Norway U23 W

France U23 W and Norway U23 W drew 2-2 in Friendlies Women on October 27, 2025.

Goals: A. Connesson (24'), M. Authen (34'), I. Omarsdottir (80'), C. Effa Effa (85').

France U23 W vs Norway U23 W — Friendlies Women 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: France U23 W vs Norway U23 W