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France U23 W vs Netherlands U23 W — Friendlies Women 2026

France U23 W
France U23 W
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Netherlands U23 W
Netherlands U23 W
11/27/2025Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

France U23 W41%
×Draw24%
Netherlands U23 W35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

France U23 W
1.59
Netherlands U23 W
1.47

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

creates per match

France U23 W
2.18
Netherlands U23 W
1.67

allows per match

France U23 W
1.27
Netherlands U23 W
1.00

finishing

France U23 W+0.00on par
Netherlands U23 W+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

France U23 W ↓

Netherlands U23 W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

France U23 W or draw
65%
France U23 W or Netherlands U23 W
76%
Draw or Netherlands U23 W
59%

Winning margin

France U23 W wins by 2+
20%
Netherlands U23 W wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

France U23 W 1+ goals
80%
France U23 W 2+ goals
47%
France U23 W 3+ goals
21%
Netherlands U23 W 1+ goals
77%
Netherlands U23 W 2+ goals
43%
Netherlands U23 W 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

France U23 W (draw refunded)
53%
Netherlands U23 W (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

France U23 W at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

Netherlands U23 W away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

France U23 W attack 2.18 + Netherlands U23 W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.59

Netherlands U23 W attack 1.67 + France U23 W defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

France U23 W scores more
41%
level
24%
Netherlands U23 W scores more
35%

France U23 W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "France U23 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: France U23 W vs Netherlands U23 W

France U23 W beat Netherlands U23 W 2-0 in Friendlies Women on November 27, 2025.