France U23 W 3–2 Denmark U23 W: Result & Stats

France U23 W

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Denmark U23 W

V. Becho 59', 44'

S. Ouchene 41'

S. Baatrup 51'

C. Floe 28'

4/6/2025

Friendlies Women · FriendliesPinatar Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

France U23 W57%

×Draw20%

Denmark U23 W23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

France U23 WExpected goals in this matchDenmark U23 W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

1.33

France U23 W

2.19

Denmark U23 W

1.33

France U23 W creates 65% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 5 away

2.18

creates per match

1.40

1.27

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

France U23 W

2.18

Denmark U23 W

1.40

allows per match

France U23 W

1.27

Denmark U23 W

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

France U23 W+0.00on par

Denmark U23 W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

France U23 W ↓

Denmark U23 W →

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

France U23 W or draw

77%

France U23 W or Denmark U23 W

80%

Draw or Denmark U23 W

43%

Winning margin

France U23 W wins by 2+

35%

Denmark U23 W wins by 2+

Team goals

France U23 W 1+ goals

89%

France U23 W 2+ goals

64%

France U23 W 3+ goals

37%

Denmark U23 W 1+ goals

74%

Denmark U23 W 2+ goals

38%

Denmark U23 W 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

France U23 W (draw refunded)

71%

Denmark U23 W (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

France U23 W at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

Denmark U23 W away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

France U23 W attack 2.18 + Denmark U23 W defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.19

Denmark U23 W attack 1.40 + France U23 W defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 57%?"

France U23 W scores more

57%

level

20%

Denmark U23 W scores more

23%

France U23 W at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "France U23 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

41'

44'

51'

59'

France

Denmark

⚽

⚽

⚽2

⚽

France U23 W substitutes

1Sieber16Marques6Joly10Hannequin11Bussy12Calba15Guilly17Notel19Bamenga22Feller

Denmark U23 W substitutes

1Gade2Mathiasen5Carstens6Byrnak8Hagemann9Linnebjerg15Rasmussen19Carstens17Fink