France U21 0–2 Portugal U18: Result & Stats

France U21

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Portugal U18

9/5/2025

Friendlies · FriendliesStade Municipal de Beaublanc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

France U2124%

×Draw30%

Portugal U1846%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

France U21Expected goals in this matchPortugal U18

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.79

1.21

France U21

0.79

Portugal U18

1.21

Portugal U18 creates 53% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

1.25

creates per match

1.67

0.75

allows per match

0.33

creates per match

France U21

1.25

Portugal U18

1.67

allows per match

France U21

0.75

Portugal U18

0.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

France U21+0.00on par

Portugal U18+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

France U21 ↓

Portugal U18 →

0–014%

0–116%

0–210%

0–34%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–04%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

France U21 or draw

54%

France U21 or Portugal U18

70%

Draw or Portugal U18

76%

Winning margin

France U21 wins by 2+

Portugal U18 wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

France U21 1+ goals

55%

France U21 2+ goals

19%

France U21 3+ goals

Portugal U18 1+ goals

70%

Portugal U18 2+ goals

34%

Portugal U18 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

France U21 (draw refunded)

34%

Portugal U18 (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

France U21 at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Portugal U18 away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

France U21 attack 1.25 + Portugal U18 defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.79

Portugal U18 attack 1.67 + France U21 defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

France U21 scores more

24%

level

30%

Portugal U18 scores more

46%

Portugal U18 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Portugal U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff