France U20 2–1 Venezuela U23: Result & Stats

France U20

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Venezuela U23

6/12/2022

Tournoi Maurice Revello · FinalStade Marcel Roustan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

France U2062%

×Draw21%

Venezuela U2317%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

France U20Expected goals in this matchVenezuela U23

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

0.95

France U20

2.00

Venezuela U23

0.95

France U20 creates 111% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 4 away

3.00

creates per match

1.00

0.89

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

France U20

3.00

Venezuela U23

1.00

allows per match

France U20

0.89

Venezuela U23

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

France U20+0.00on par

Venezuela U23+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

France U20 ↓

Venezuela U23 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

France U20 or draw

83%

France U20 or Venezuela U23

79%

Draw or Venezuela U23

38%

Winning margin

France U20 wins by 2+

37%

Venezuela U23 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

France U20 1+ goals

86%

France U20 2+ goals

59%

France U20 3+ goals

32%

Venezuela U23 1+ goals

61%

Venezuela U23 2+ goals

25%

Venezuela U23 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

France U20 (draw refunded)

78%

Venezuela U23 (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

France U20 at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

Venezuela U23 away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

France U20 attack 3.00 + Venezuela U23 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Venezuela U23 attack 1.00 + France U20 defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

France U20 scores more

62%

level

21%

Venezuela U23 scores more

17%

France U20 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "France U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff