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Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Dalian Transcendence — League One 2018

Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dalian Transcendence
Dalian Transcendence
3/31/2018League OneLeague One · Round 3Yutong International Sports Center (Shijiazhuang)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Shijiazhuang Y. J.62%
×Draw21%
Dalian Transcendence17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shijiazhuang Y. J.
2.00
Dalian Transcendence
0.95

Shijiazhuang Y. J. creates 111% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 14 away

creates per match

Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.93
Dalian Transcendence
0.86

allows per match

Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.03
Dalian Transcendence
2.07

finishing

Shijiazhuang Y. J.+0.00on par
Dalian Transcendence+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shijiazhuang Y. J. ↓

Dalian Transcendence →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Shijiazhuang Y. J. or draw
83%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. or Dalian Transcendence
79%
Draw or Dalian Transcendence
38%

Winning margin

Shijiazhuang Y. J. wins by 2+
37%
Dalian Transcendence wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1+ goals
86%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2+ goals
59%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3+ goals
32%
Dalian Transcendence 1+ goals
61%
Dalian Transcendence 2+ goals
25%
Dalian Transcendence 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Shijiazhuang Y. J. (draw refunded)
78%
Dalian Transcendence (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.03 · 29 matches

Dalian Transcendence away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.93 + Dalian Transcendence defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.00

Dalian Transcendence attack 0.86 + Shijiazhuang Y. J. defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Shijiazhuang Y. J. scores more
62%
level
21%
Dalian Transcendence scores more
17%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Shijiazhuang Y. J. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1–0 Dalian Transcendence

Shijiazhuang Y. J. beat Dalian Transcendence 1-0 in League One on March 31, 2018.

The match was played at Yutong International Sports Center (Shijiazhuang).