France U20 3–1 Saudi Arabia U23: Result & Stats

France U20

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Saudi Arabia U23

6/15/2025

Tournoi Maurice Revello · Play Offs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

France U2068%

×Draw17%

Saudi Arabia U2315%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

France U20Expected goals in this matchSaudi Arabia U23

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.50

1.07

France U20

2.50

Saudi Arabia U23

1.07

France U20 creates 134% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 8 away

3.00

creates per match

1.25

0.89

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

France U20

3.00

Saudi Arabia U23

1.25

allows per match

France U20

0.89

Saudi Arabia U23

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

France U20+0.00on par

Saudi Arabia U23+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

France U20 ↓

Saudi Arabia U23 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

France U20 or draw

85%

France U20 or Saudi Arabia U23

83%

Draw or Saudi Arabia U23

32%

Winning margin

France U20 wins by 2+

46%

Saudi Arabia U23 wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

France U20 1+ goals

92%

France U20 2+ goals

71%

France U20 3+ goals

45%

Saudi Arabia U23 1+ goals

66%

Saudi Arabia U23 2+ goals

29%

Saudi Arabia U23 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

France U20 (draw refunded)

82%

Saudi Arabia U23 (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

France U20 at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

Saudi Arabia U23 away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

France U20 attack 3.00 + Saudi Arabia U23 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.50

Saudi Arabia U23 attack 1.25 + France U20 defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

France U20 scores more

68%

level

17%

Saudi Arabia U23 scores more

15%

France U20 at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "France U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff