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France U20 vs Saudi Arabia U20 — Tournoi Maurice Revello 2022

France U20
France U20
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Saudi Arabia U20
Saudi Arabia U20
6/1/2022Tournoi Maurice RevelloTournoi Maurice Revello · Group Stage - 2Stade Jules-Ladoumègue

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

France U2082%
×Draw12%
Saudi Arabia U206%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

France U20
2.83
Saudi Arabia U20
0.61

France U20 creates 364% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 3 away

creates per match

France U20
3.00
Saudi Arabia U20
0.33

allows per match

France U20
0.89
Saudi Arabia U20
2.67

finishing

France U20+0.00on par
Saudi Arabia U20+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

France U20 ↓

Saudi Arabia U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–16%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–18%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

France U20 or draw
94%
France U20 or Saudi Arabia U20
88%
Draw or Saudi Arabia U20
18%

Winning margin

France U20 wins by 2+
62%
Saudi Arabia U20 wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

France U20 1+ goals
94%
France U20 2+ goals
77%
France U20 3+ goals
53%
Saudi Arabia U20 1+ goals
46%
Saudi Arabia U20 2+ goals
13%
Saudi Arabia U20 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

France U20 (draw refunded)
94%
Saudi Arabia U20 (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

France U20 at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

Saudi Arabia U20 away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

France U20 attack 3.00 + Saudi Arabia U20 defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.83

Saudi Arabia U20 attack 0.33 + France U20 defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

France U20 scores more
82%
level
12%
Saudi Arabia U20 scores more
6%

France U20 at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "France U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tournoi Maurice Revello: France U20 5–0 Saudi Arabia U20

France U20 beat Saudi Arabia U20 5-0 in Tournoi Maurice Revello on June 1, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Jules-Ladoumègue in Vitrolles.