France U19 W 6–1 Sweden U19 W: Result & Stats

France U19 W

6 – 1

HT: 4 – 1

Sweden U19 W

R. Rafalski 90'

K. Roche-Dufour 85'

C. Effa Effa 35', 16', 6'

M. Mendy 13' (pen)

B. Andersson 45'

2/22/2025

Friendlies Women · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

France U19 W69%

×Draw17%

Sweden U19 W14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

France U19 WExpected goals in this matchSweden U19 W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.58

1.08

France U19 W

2.58

Sweden U19 W

1.08

France U19 W creates 139% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

3.00

creates per match

1.17

1.00

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

France U19 W

3.00

Sweden U19 W

1.17

allows per match

France U19 W

1.00

Sweden U19 W

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

France U19 W+0.00on par

Sweden U19 W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

France U19 W ↓

Sweden U19 W →

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–07%

1–17%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

France U19 W or draw

86%

France U19 W or Sweden U19 W

83%

Draw or Sweden U19 W

31%

Winning margin

France U19 W wins by 2+

47%

Sweden U19 W wins by 2+

Team goals

France U19 W 1+ goals

92%

France U19 W 2+ goals

72%

France U19 W 3+ goals

47%

Sweden U19 W 1+ goals

66%

Sweden U19 W 2+ goals

29%

Sweden U19 W 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

France U19 W (draw refunded)

83%

Sweden U19 W (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

France U19 W at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Sweden U19 W away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

France U19 W attack 3.00 + Sweden U19 W defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.58

Sweden U19 W attack 1.17 + France U19 W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 69%?"

France U19 W scores more

69%

level

17%

Sweden U19 W scores more

14%

France U19 W at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "France U19 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

C. Effa Effa

13'

M. MendyPenalty

16'

35'

45'

85'

90'

France

Sweden

⚽

⚽3

⚽

Manager: Philippe Joly

France U19 W substitutes

16Yilmaz9Rafalski11Rambaud13Denizot14Roche-Dufour15Chabod17Chaine19Gay

Manager: Annelie Noren

Sweden U19 W substitutes

12Delerud21Andersson8Pelgander14Lundin15Crona16Mattsson17Starczynska18Dahlman19Ekblom20Andersson

Friendlies Women: France U19 W 6–1 Sweden U19 W

France U19 W beat Sweden U19 W 6-1 in Friendlies Women on February 22, 2025.

Goals: C. Effa Effa (6', 16', 35'), M. Mendy (13' pen), B. Andersson (45'), K. Roche-Dufour (85'), R. Rafalski (90').

France U19 W vs Sweden U19 W — Friendlies Women 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Friendlies Women: France U19 W 6–1 Sweden U19 W