France U19 2–1 Turkey U19: Result & Stats

France U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Turkey U19

J. Jacquet 86' (pen)

L. Michal 65'

Y. Fidan 4'

7/16/2024

UEFA U19 Championship · Group Stage - 1Seaview

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

France U1972%

×Draw17%

Turkey U1911%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

France U19Expected goals in this matchTurkey U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.40

0.81

France U19

2.40

Turkey U19

0.81

France U19 creates 196% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 4 away

2.54

creates per match

1.00

0.62

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

France U19

2.54

Turkey U19

1.00

allows per match

France U19

0.62

Turkey U19

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

France U19+0.00on par

Turkey U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

France U19 ↓

Turkey U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–15%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

France U19 or draw

89%

France U19 or Turkey U19

83%

Draw or Turkey U19

28%

Winning margin

France U19 wins by 2+

49%

Turkey U19 wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

France U19 1+ goals

91%

France U19 2+ goals

69%

France U19 3+ goals

42%

Turkey U19 1+ goals

56%

Turkey U19 2+ goals

19%

Turkey U19 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

France U19 (draw refunded)

87%

Turkey U19 (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

France U19 at home — creates 2.54, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

Turkey U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

France U19 attack 2.54 + Turkey U19 defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.40

Turkey U19 attack 1.00 + France U19 defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

France U19 scores more

72%

level

17%

Turkey U19 scores more

11%

France U19 at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "France U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

D. Assoumani

France U19 · D

8.3

Match Events

4'

Y. Fidan↳ E. Uzun

46'

L. Michal← T. Gomis

56'

J. Bahoya← V. Atangana Edoa

63'

H. Özdemir← E. Uzun

65'

L. Michal↳ D. Assoumani

69'

M. Amougou← Y. Gomis

69'

S. Bouabré← S. Mayulu

72'

E. Bars← E. Demircan

80'

A. Aiki← S. Ngoura

86'

J. JacquetPenalty

87'

İ. Vural← B. Gezek

88'

F. Ay← D. Dağdeviren

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FranceTurkey

Overview

68%Possession32%

14Total Shots5

4Corners3

11Fouls19

Shots

14Total Shots5

5On Target1

7Off Target3

2Blocked1

10Inside Box4

4Outside Box1

Passing

68%Possession32%

568Total Passes267

478Accurate Passes195

84%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls19

1Offsides0