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France U19 vs Switzerland U19 — Friendlies 2018

France U19
France U19
FT
5 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Switzerland U19
Switzerland U19
M. Detourbet 77', 50', 48'
I. Mbaye 36'
E. Kana-Biyik 31'
J. Atangana 90'
M. Mardochee 11'
I. Parra 10'
10/11/2025FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

France U1951%
×Draw18%
Switzerland U1931%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

France U19
2.79
Switzerland U19
2.17

France U19 creates 29% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

France U19
3.33
Switzerland U19
3.00

allows per match

France U19
1.33
Switzerland U19
2.25

finishing

France U19+0.00on par
Switzerland U19+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

83%Yes
  • Yes83
  • No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

France U19 ↓

Switzerland U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–25%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
72%28%4.5
54%46%

Double chance

France U19 or draw
69%
France U19 or Switzerland U19
82%
Draw or Switzerland U19
49%

Winning margin

France U19 wins by 2+
32%
Switzerland U19 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

France U19 1+ goals
94%
France U19 2+ goals
76%
France U19 3+ goals
52%
Switzerland U19 1+ goals
89%
Switzerland U19 2+ goals
64%
Switzerland U19 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

France U19 (draw refunded)
62%
Switzerland U19 (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
79%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

France U19 at home — creates 3.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Switzerland U19 away — creates 3.00, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

France U19 attack 3.33 + Switzerland U19 defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.79

Switzerland U19 attack 3.00 + France U19 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

France U19 scores more
51%
level
18%
Switzerland U19 scores more
31%

France U19 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "France U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
I. Parra
11'
M. Mardochee
31'
E. Kana-Biyik
36'
I. Mbaye
48'
M. Detourbet
50'
M. Detourbet
77'
M. Detourbet
90'
J. Atangana
France
Switzerland
J. Vannuchi
Manager: J. Vannuchi
M. Rizzo
Manager: M. Rizzo

Friendlies: France U19 5–3 Switzerland U19

France U19 beat Switzerland U19 5-3 in Friendlies on October 11, 2025.

Goals: I. Parra (10'), M. Mardochee (11'), E. Kana-Biyik (31'), I. Mbaye (36'), M. Detourbet (48', 50', 77'), J. Atangana (90').