France U19 vs Sweden U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 14+ matches
France U1963%
Sweden U1916%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
France U19 creates 125% more chances
Season form · 21 home / 14 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over55
- Under45
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes51
- No49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
France U19 ↓
Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
France U19 at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.48 · 21 matches
Sweden U19 away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.71 · 14 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
France U19 attack 2.29 + Sweden U19 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.00
Sweden U19 attack 1.29 + France U19 defence 0.48 → ÷2 → 0.89
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 63%?"
France U19 at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 63% does not mean "France U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
France U19 substitutes
Head to Head
1 previous meeting · small sample
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Liechtenstein U19If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
France U19 host Sweden U19 on Wednesday, 23 March 2022 at 14:00. The match is part of the UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022/2023 season.
France U19 5 – 0 Sweden U19
France U19 beat Sweden U19 5-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on March 23, 2022.
Goals: S. Touré (12'), M. Cho (18', 66'), E. Wahi (60', 70').
The match was played at Stade Omnisports André Darrigade in Dax.