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France U19 vs Spain U19 — UEFA U19 Championship 2019

France U19
France U19
FT
4 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Spain U19
Spain U19
M. Diaby 90+1'
A. Gouiri 82'
M. Maolida 66'
Jorge Cuenca 63' (OG)
Jordi Mboula 88'
Abel Ruiz 52' (pen)
3/27/2018UEFA U19 ChampionshipUEFA U19 Championship · Elite Round - 5Estadio Municipal Guillermo Amor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

France U1936%
×Draw23%
Spain U1941%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

France U19
1.61
Spain U19
1.72

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 16 away

creates per match

France U19
2.54
Spain U19
2.81

allows per match

France U19
0.62
Spain U19
0.69

finishing

France U19+0.00on par
Spain U19+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

France U19 ↓

Spain U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

France U19 or draw
59%
France U19 or Spain U19
77%
Draw or Spain U19
64%

Winning margin

France U19 wins by 2+
18%
Spain U19 wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

France U19 1+ goals
80%
France U19 2+ goals
48%
France U19 3+ goals
22%
Spain U19 1+ goals
82%
Spain U19 2+ goals
51%
Spain U19 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

France U19 (draw refunded)
47%
Spain U19 (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

France U19 at home — creates 2.54, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

Spain U19 away — creates 2.81, concedes 0.69 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

France U19 attack 2.54 + Spain U19 defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.61

Spain U19 attack 2.81 + France U19 defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

France U19 scores more
36%
level
23%
Spain U19 scores more
41%

Spain U19 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Spain U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

52'
Abel RuizPenalty
63'
Jorge CuencaOwn goal
66'
M. Maolida
82'
A. Gouiri
88'
Jordi Mboula
90+1'
M. Diaby

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA U19 Championship: France U19 4–2 Spain U19

France U19 beat Spain U19 4-2 in UEFA U19 Championship on March 27, 2018.

Goals: Abel Ruiz (52' pen), Jorge Cuenca (63' o.g.), M. Maolida (66'), A. Gouiri (82'), Jordi Mboula (88'), M. Diaby (90+1').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Guillermo Amor in Benidorm.