France U19 2–0 North Macedonia U19: Result & Stats

France U19

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

North Macedonia U19

A. Virginius 25'

M. Abline 14'

11/13/2021

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 6Arena Egnatia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

France U1972%

×Draw18%

North Macedonia U1910%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

France U19Expected goals in this matchNorth Macedonia U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

0.71

France U19

2.25

North Macedonia U19

0.71

France U19 creates 217% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 14 away

2.29

creates per match

0.93

0.48

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

France U19

2.29

North Macedonia U19

0.93

allows per match

France U19

0.48

North Macedonia U19

2.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

France U19+0.00on par

North Macedonia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

France U19 ↓

North Macedonia U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

France U19 or draw

90%

France U19 or North Macedonia U19

82%

Draw or North Macedonia U19

28%

Winning margin

France U19 wins by 2+

48%

North Macedonia U19 wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

France U19 1+ goals

89%

France U19 2+ goals

65%

France U19 3+ goals

39%

North Macedonia U19 1+ goals

51%

North Macedonia U19 2+ goals

16%

North Macedonia U19 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

France U19 (draw refunded)

88%

North Macedonia U19 (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

France U19 at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.48 · 21 matches

North Macedonia U19 away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.21 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

France U19 attack 2.29 + North Macedonia U19 defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.25

North Macedonia U19 attack 0.93 + France U19 defence 0.48 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

France U19 scores more

72%

level

18%

North Macedonia U19 scores more

10%

France U19 at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "France U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

M. Abline

25'

A. Virginius

46'

M. Angelov← Z. Šaini

46'

M. Talakov← D. Jahiji

58'

B. Gudjufi← B. Feta

63'

B. Pereira← I. Doukouré

63'

L. Tchaouna← A. Virginius

70'

A. Ali← D. Elezi

77'

L. Cissé← M. Abline

78'

E. Alfatahi← J. Semedo Varela

85'

L. Kudev← V. Krstevski

86'

E. Michut← M. Adeline

France

North

1

17

4

16

6

▼

Šaini

10

Rakipi

18

▼

Krstevski

5

Ramadani

7

▼

Feta

9

▼

Elezi

8

▼

Jahiji

1

Lo-Tutala

5

▼

Doukouré

2

Zoukrou

3

▼

Varela

12

▼

6

15

4

14

9

⚽

▼

Abline

7

⚽

▼

Virginius

Manager: L. Chauvin

63'▲B. Pereira←▼I. Doukouré

63'▲L. Tchaouna←▼A. Virginius

77'▲L. Cissé←▼M. Abline

78'▲E. Alfatahi←▼J. Semedo Varela

86'▲E. Michut←▼M. Adeline

France U19 substitutes

19Pereira17Tchaouna20Cissé13Alfatahi18Michut10Ba11Seghir16Ngapandouetnbu8Bondo

Manager: D. Beari

46'▲M. Angelov←▼Z. Šaini

46'▲M. Talakov←▼D. Jahiji

58'▲B. Gudjufi←▼B. Feta

70'▲A. Ali←▼D. Elezi

85'▲L. Kudev←▼V. Krstevski

North Macedonia U19 substitutes

15Angelov19Talakov20Gudjufi14Ali2Kudev13Bosheski11Saitoski3Davkov12Jovčev

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: France U19 2–0 North Macedonia U19

France U19 beat North Macedonia U19 2-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on November 13, 2021.

Goals: M. Abline (14'), A. Virginius (25').

The match was played at Arena Egnatia in Rrogozhinë.

France U19 vs North Macedonia U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: France U19 2–0 North Macedonia U19