France U19 7–0 Liechtenstein U19: Result & Stats

France U19

FT

7 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Liechtenstein U19

T. Gomis 90+1', 76'

F. Sylla 77'

J. Weissenhofer 71' (OG)

L. Milliner 44'

P. Cabral 36', 17'

11/13/2024

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 4Marbill Coaches Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

France U1996%

×Draw3%

Liechtenstein U191%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

France U19Expected goals in this matchLiechtenstein U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

4.27

0.30

France U19

4.27

Liechtenstein U19

0.30

France U19 creates 1323% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 8 away

2.29

creates per match

0.13

0.48

allows per match

6.25

creates per match

France U19

2.29

Liechtenstein U19

0.13

allows per match

France U19

0.48

Liechtenstein U19

6.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

France U19+0.00on par

Liechtenstein U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No75
Yes25

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

France U19 ↓

Liechtenstein U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–10%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–12%

1–20%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–13%

2–20%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–016%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–017%

4–15%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (17%) · grid covers 67% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

62%38%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

France U19 or draw

99%

France U19 or Liechtenstein U19

97%

Draw or Liechtenstein U19

4%

Winning margin

France U19 wins by 2+

87%

Liechtenstein U19 wins by 2+

0%

Team goals

France U19 1+ goals

98%

France U19 2+ goals

91%

France U19 3+ goals

77%

Liechtenstein U19 1+ goals

26%

Liechtenstein U19 2+ goals

4%

Liechtenstein U19 3+ goals

0%

Draw no bet

France U19 (draw refunded)

99%

Liechtenstein U19 (draw refunded)

1%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

France U19 at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.48 · 21 matches

Liechtenstein U19 away — creates 0.13, concedes 6.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

France U19 attack 2.29 + Liechtenstein U19 defence 6.25 → ÷2 → 4.27

Liechtenstein U19 attack 0.13 + France U19 defence 0.48 → ÷2 → 0.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 96%?"

France U19 scores more

96%

level

3%

Liechtenstein U19 scores more

1%

France U19 at 96% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 96% does not mean "France U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

27'

36'

44'

46'

T. Gomis← L. Milliner

61'

D. Methalie← N. Sangui

61'

K. Diliwidi← J. Tincrès

61'

R. Messi← T. Diallo

66'

L. Domig← R. Gassner

71'

J. WeissenhoferOwn goal

76'

T. Gomis

77'

F. Sylla

78'

A. Bamba← P. Cabral

80'

B. Poitner← S. Saglam

84'

J. Weissenhofer

89'

F. Sylla

90+1'

F. Gritsch← Y. Abidi

90+1'

M. Hoop← J. Cocetrone

90+1'

T. Gomis

France

Liechtenstein

1

Schädler

7

Keller

18

Wolf

2

▼

Abidi

6

▼

Gassner

19

▼

Saglam

15

🥅

Weissenho

16

Nigg

9

▼

17

11

1

2

3

▼

Sangui

14

Gadou

13

Kiwa

18

⚽

Sylla

20

⚽

▼

Milliner

10

Bouneb

11

▼

Diallo

15

⚽2

▼

Cabral

9

▼

Tincrès

Manager: J. Vannuchi

46'▲T. Gomis←▼L. Milliner

61'▲D. Methalie←▼N. Sangui

61'▲K. Diliwidi←▼J. Tincrès

61'▲R. Messi←▼T. Diallo

78'▲A. Bamba←▼P. Cabral

France U19 substitutes

7Gomis4Methalie19Diliwidi17Messi8Bamba12Sadi5Sanda6Amougou16Niflore

Manager: M. Koller

66'▲L. Domig←▼R. Gassner

80'▲B. Poitner←▼S. Saglam

90+1'▲F. Gritsch←▼Y. Abidi

90+1'▲M. Hoop←▼J. Cocetrone

Liechtenstein U19 substitutes

10Domig4Poitner3Gritsch20Hoop13Verling12Beck14Odermatt8Wohlwend