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France U19 vs Estonia U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

France U19
France U19
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Estonia U19
Estonia U19
11/15/2023UEFA U19 Championship - QualificationUEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 5Stade de la Source

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

France U1973%
×Draw18%
Estonia U199%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

France U19
2.11
Estonia U19
0.56

France U19 creates 277% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 14 away

creates per match

France U19
2.29
Estonia U19
0.64

allows per match

France U19
0.48
Estonia U19
1.93

finishing

France U19+0.00on par
Estonia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

France U19 ↓

Estonia U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

France U19 or draw
91%
France U19 or Estonia U19
82%
Draw or Estonia U19
27%

Winning margin

France U19 wins by 2+
48%
Estonia U19 wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

France U19 1+ goals
88%
France U19 2+ goals
62%
France U19 3+ goals
35%
Estonia U19 1+ goals
43%
Estonia U19 2+ goals
11%
Estonia U19 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

France U19 (draw refunded)
90%
Estonia U19 (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

France U19 at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.48 · 21 matches

Estonia U19 away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

France U19 attack 2.29 + Estonia U19 defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.11

Estonia U19 attack 0.64 + France U19 defence 0.48 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

France U19 scores more
73%
level
18%
Estonia U19 scores more
9%

France U19 at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "France U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: France U19 2–0 Estonia U19

France U19 beat Estonia U19 2-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on November 15, 2023.

The match was played at Stade de la Source in Orléans.