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France U19 vs Belgium U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

France U19
France U19
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Belgium U19
Belgium U19
3/20/2024UEFA U19 Championship - QualificationUEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 3Sportpark Marsdijk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

France U1952%
×Draw24%
Belgium U1924%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

France U19
1.68
Belgium U19
1.06

France U19 creates 58% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 14 away

creates per match

France U19
2.29
Belgium U19
1.64

allows per match

France U19
0.48
Belgium U19
1.07

finishing

France U19+0.00on par
Belgium U19+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

France U19 ↓

Belgium U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

France U19 or draw
76%
France U19 or Belgium U19
76%
Draw or Belgium U19
48%

Winning margin

France U19 wins by 2+
28%
Belgium U19 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

France U19 1+ goals
81%
France U19 2+ goals
50%
France U19 3+ goals
24%
Belgium U19 1+ goals
65%
Belgium U19 2+ goals
29%
Belgium U19 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

France U19 (draw refunded)
68%
Belgium U19 (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

France U19 at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.48 · 21 matches

Belgium U19 away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

France U19 attack 2.29 + Belgium U19 defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.68

Belgium U19 attack 1.64 + France U19 defence 0.48 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

France U19 scores more
52%
level
24%
Belgium U19 scores more
24%

France U19 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "France U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: France U19 2–0 Belgium U19

France U19 beat Belgium U19 2-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on March 20, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark Marsdijk in Assen.