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France U16 W vs Germany U16 W — Friendlies Women 2026

France U16 W
France U16 W
Pens
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Germany U16 W
Germany U16 W
M. Zidi 55'
J. Putzer 35'
5/19/2025Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

France U16 W34%
×Draw39%
Germany U16 W27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

France U16 W
0.75
Germany U16 W
0.63

France U16 W creates 19% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

France U16 W
1.50
Germany U16 W
1.00

allows per match

France U16 W
0.25
Germany U16 W
0.00

finishing

France U16 W+0.00on par
Germany U16 W+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Under
  • Under84
  • Over16

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

75%No
  • No75
  • Yes25

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

France U16 W ↓

Germany U16 W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–025%
0–116%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–14%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (25%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
75%25%1.5
40%60%2.5
16%84%3.5
5%95%4.5
1%99%

Double chance

France U16 W or draw
73%
France U16 W or Germany U16 W
61%
Draw or Germany U16 W
66%

Winning margin

France U16 W wins by 2+
11%
Germany U16 W wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

France U16 W 1+ goals
53%
France U16 W 2+ goals
17%
France U16 W 3+ goals
4%
Germany U16 W 1+ goals
47%
Germany U16 W 2+ goals
13%
Germany U16 W 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

France U16 W (draw refunded)
56%
Germany U16 W (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
13%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

France U16 W at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.25 · 4 matches

Germany U16 W away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

France U16 W attack 1.50 + Germany U16 W defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.75

Germany U16 W attack 1.00 + France U16 W defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

France U16 W scores more
34%
level
39%
Germany U16 W scores more
27%

France U16 W at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "France U16 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'
J. Putzer
55'
M. Zidi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Women: France U16 W 1–1 Germany U16 W

France U16 W and Germany U16 W drew 1-1 in Friendlies Women on May 19, 2025.

Goals: J. Putzer (35'), M. Zidi (55').