Francana U20 1–3 Sertãozinho U20: Result & Stats

Francana U20

FT

1 – 3

Sertãozinho U20

4/12/2024

Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 1Estádio Municipal Dr. José Lancha Filho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Francana U2053%

×Draw20%

Sertãozinho U2027%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Francana U20Expected goals in this matchSertãozinho U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.38

1.67

Francana U20

2.38

Sertãozinho U20

1.67

Francana U20 creates 43% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 23 away

2.80

creates per match

1.13

2.20

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Francana U20

2.80

Sertãozinho U20

1.13

allows per match

Francana U20

2.20

Sertãozinho U20

1.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Francana U20+0.00on par

Sertãozinho U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Francana U20 ↓

Sertãozinho U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Francana U20 or draw

73%

Francana U20 or Sertãozinho U20

80%

Draw or Sertãozinho U20

47%

Winning margin

Francana U20 wins by 2+

33%

Sertãozinho U20 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Francana U20 1+ goals

91%

Francana U20 2+ goals

68%

Francana U20 3+ goals

42%

Sertãozinho U20 1+ goals

81%

Sertãozinho U20 2+ goals

50%

Sertãozinho U20 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Francana U20 (draw refunded)

66%

Sertãozinho U20 (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Francana U20 at home — creates 2.80, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

Sertãozinho U20 away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.96 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Francana U20 attack 2.80 + Sertãozinho U20 defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 2.38

Sertãozinho U20 attack 1.13 + Francana U20 defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Francana U20 scores more

53%

level

20%

Sertãozinho U20 scores more

27%

Francana U20 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Francana U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff