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Francana U20 vs Guarani U20 — League #618 2026

Francana U20
Francana U20
FT
1 – 4
Guarani U20
Guarani U20
1/2/2023League #618League #618 · Group Stage - 1Estádio Municipal Dr. José Lancha Filho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Francana U2014%
×Draw21%
Guarani U2065%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Francana U20
0.80
Guarani U20
2.00

Guarani U20 creates 150% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 5 away

creates per match

Francana U20
0.60
Guarani U20
2.20

allows per match

Francana U20
1.80
Guarani U20
1.00

finishing

Francana U20+0.00on par
Guarani U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 53Under: 4753%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No: 52Yes: 4852%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Francana U20 ↓

Guarani U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–112%
0–212%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Francana U20 or draw
35%
Francana U20 or Guarani U20
79%
Draw or Guarani U20
86%

Winning margin

Francana U20 wins by 2+
4%
Guarani U20 wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Francana U20 1+ goals
55%
Francana U20 2+ goals
19%
Francana U20 3+ goals
5%
Guarani U20 1+ goals
86%
Guarani U20 2+ goals
59%
Guarani U20 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Francana U20 (draw refunded)
18%
Guarani U20 (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Francana U20 at home — creates 0.60, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

Guarani U20 away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Francana U20 attack 0.60 + Guarani U20 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.80

Guarani U20 attack 2.20 + Francana U20 defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Francana U20 scores more
14%
level
21%
Guarani U20 scores more
65%

Guarani U20 at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Guarani U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Francana U20 vs Guarani U20

Guarani U20 beat Francana U20 4-1 in League #618 on January 2, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Dr. José Lancha Filho in Franca, São Paulo.