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Francana U20 vs Botafogo SP U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Francana U20
Francana U20
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Botafogo SP U20
Botafogo SP U20
Tortello 66'
F. Souza 52'
Pedro Severino 50', 21'
5/24/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 7Estádio Municipal Dr. José Lancha Filho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Francana U2046%
×Draw20%
Botafogo SP U2034%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Francana U20
2.25
Botafogo SP U20
1.94

Francana U20 creates 16% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 24 away

creates per match

Francana U20
2.80
Botafogo SP U20
1.67

allows per match

Francana U20
2.20
Botafogo SP U20
1.71

finishing

Francana U20+0.00on par
Botafogo SP U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 79Under: 2179%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 76No: 2476%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Francana U20 ↓

Botafogo SP U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Francana U20 or draw
66%
Francana U20 or Botafogo SP U20
80%
Draw or Botafogo SP U20
54%

Winning margin

Francana U20 wins by 2+
27%
Botafogo SP U20 wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Francana U20 1+ goals
89%
Francana U20 2+ goals
65%
Francana U20 3+ goals
39%
Botafogo SP U20 1+ goals
86%
Botafogo SP U20 2+ goals
58%
Botafogo SP U20 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Francana U20 (draw refunded)
57%
Botafogo SP U20 (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Francana U20 at home — creates 2.80, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

Botafogo SP U20 away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.71 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Francana U20 attack 2.80 + Botafogo SP U20 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.25

Botafogo SP U20 attack 1.67 + Francana U20 defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Francana U20 scores more
46%
level
20%
Botafogo SP U20 scores more
34%

Francana U20 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Francana U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
Pedro Severino
50'
Pedro Severino
52'
F. Souza
66'
Tortello

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Francana U20 vs Botafogo SP U20

Botafogo SP U20 beat Francana U20 4-0 in Paulista - U20 on May 24, 2024.

Goals: Pedro Severino (21', 50'), F. Souza (52'), Tortello (66').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Dr. José Lancha Filho in Franca, São Paulo.