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Fram vs Øygarden — 2. Division - Group 2 2019

Fram
Fram
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Øygarden
Øygarden
8/21/20212. Division - Group 22. Division - Group 2 · Group 2 - 13Framparken

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Fram50%
×Draw22%
Øygarden28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fram
1.96
Øygarden
1.42

Fram creates 38% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 13 away

creates per match

Fram
1.84
Øygarden
1.38

allows per match

Fram
1.47
Øygarden
2.08

finishing

Fram+0.00on par
Øygarden+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fram ↓

Øygarden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Fram or draw
72%
Fram or Øygarden
78%
Draw or Øygarden
50%

Winning margin

Fram wins by 2+
28%
Øygarden wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Fram 1+ goals
86%
Fram 2+ goals
58%
Fram 3+ goals
31%
Øygarden 1+ goals
76%
Øygarden 2+ goals
41%
Øygarden 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Fram (draw refunded)
64%
Øygarden (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fram at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.47 · 32 matches

Øygarden away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fram attack 1.84 + Øygarden defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.96

Øygarden attack 1.38 + Fram defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Fram scores more
50%
level
22%
Øygarden scores more
28%

Fram at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Fram will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Division - Group 2: Fram 1–1 Øygarden

Fram and Øygarden drew 1-1 in 2. Division - Group 2 on August 21, 2021.

The match was played at Framparken in Larvik.