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Fram vs Vigør — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Fram
Fram
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Vigør
Vigør
6/29/20243. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Group 2 - 13Framparken

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Fram80%
×Draw12%
Vigør9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fram
3.54
Vigør
1.16

Fram creates 205% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Fram
2.92
Vigør
0.77

allows per match

Fram
1.54
Vigør
4.15

finishing

Fram+0.00on par
Vigør+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fram ↓

Vigør →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–14%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–17%
4–24%
4–32%
4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Fram or draw
91%
Fram or Vigør
88%
Draw or Vigør
20%

Winning margin

Fram wins by 2+
62%
Vigør wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Fram 1+ goals
97%
Fram 2+ goals
86%
Fram 3+ goals
66%
Vigør 1+ goals
69%
Vigør 2+ goals
32%
Vigør 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Fram (draw refunded)
90%
Vigør (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fram at home — creates 2.92, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

Vigør away — creates 0.77, concedes 4.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fram attack 2.92 + Vigør defence 4.15 → ÷2 → 3.54

Vigør attack 0.77 + Fram defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Fram scores more
80%
level
12%
Vigør scores more
9%

Fram at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Fram will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 2: Fram 2–0 Vigør

Fram beat Vigør 2-0 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on June 29, 2024.

The match was played at Framparken in Larvik.