Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Fram vs Urædd — 3. Division - Girone 4 2020

Fram
Fram
FT
0 – 0
Urædd
Urædd
5/7/20223. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Girone 4 - 5Framparken

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Fram80%
×Draw13%
Urædd7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fram
2.84
Urædd
0.73

Fram creates 289% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Fram
2.77
Urædd
1.00

allows per match

Fram
0.46
Urædd
2.92

finishing

Fram+0.00on par
Urædd+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fram ↓

Urædd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–16%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Fram or draw
93%
Fram or Urædd
87%
Draw or Urædd
20%

Winning margin

Fram wins by 2+
60%
Urædd wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Fram 1+ goals
94%
Fram 2+ goals
77%
Fram 3+ goals
53%
Urædd 1+ goals
52%
Urædd 2+ goals
17%
Urædd 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Fram (draw refunded)
92%
Urædd (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fram at home — creates 2.77, concedes 0.46 · 13 matches

Urædd away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fram attack 2.77 + Urædd defence 2.92 → ÷2 → 2.84

Urædd attack 1.00 + Fram defence 0.46 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Fram scores more
80%
level
13%
Urædd scores more
7%

Fram at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Fram will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Fram 0 – 0 Urædd

Fram and Urædd drew 0-0 in 3. Division - Girone 4 on May 7, 2022.

The match was played at Framparken in Larvik.