Fram 2–3 Notodden: Result & Stats

Fram

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Notodden

C. Ifejilika 41'

M. Joof 34'

J. Voilås 52'

A. Snibb 49'

M. Frithzell 27'

9/18/2021

2. Division - Group 2 · Group 2 - 18Framparken

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Fram48%

×Draw22%

Notodden30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FramExpected goals in this matchNotodden

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.48

Fram

1.92

Notodden

1.48

Fram creates 30% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 20 away

1.79

creates per match

1.40

1.55

allows per match

2.05

creates per match

Fram

1.79

Notodden

1.40

allows per match

Fram

1.55

Notodden

2.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fram+0.00on par

Notodden+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fram ↓

Notodden →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Fram or draw

70%

Fram or Notodden

78%

Draw or Notodden

52%

Winning margin

Fram wins by 2+

27%

Notodden wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Fram 1+ goals

85%

Fram 2+ goals

57%

Fram 3+ goals

30%

Notodden 1+ goals

77%

Notodden 2+ goals

43%

Notodden 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Fram (draw refunded)

62%

Notodden (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fram at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.55 · 29 matches

Notodden away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.05 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fram attack 1.79 + Notodden defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.92

Notodden attack 1.40 + Fram defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Fram scores more

48%

level

22%

Notodden scores more

30%

Fram at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Fram will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

34'

41'

49'

52'

54'

56'

61'

D. Flaathe-Simonsen← T. Kongerud

68'

D. Flaathe-Simonsen

71'

H. Gustavsen

73'

J. Myrbakk← S. Brewer

76'

A. Berntsen← W. Pozo-Venta

85'

N. Grinde← E. Hagen

85'

E. Shemumpunge Kisaruko← M. Frithzell

87'

J. Voilas

90+4'

M. Holmen

90'

E. Tveiten← J. Voilås

Fram

Notodden

31

Smedplass

8

Gustavsen

5

⚽

Snibb

4

Lillo

15

▼

11

17

6

9

⚽

▼

Frithzell

19

▼

Pozo-Vent

20

⚽

▼

1

15

2

30

3

▼

25

22

7

28

▼

Brewer

16

⚽

Ifejilika

20

⚽

Joof

Manager: H. Lunov

61'▲D. Flaathe-Simonsen←▼T. Kongerud

73'▲J. Myrbakk←▼S. Brewer

Fram substitutes

18Flaathe-Simonsen10Myrbakk6Cham12Hagen13Ingebrigtsen17Bruusgaard19Bergersen

Manager: M. Erga

76'▲A. Berntsen←▼W. Pozo-Venta

85'▲N. Grinde←▼E. Hagen

85'▲E. Shemumpunge Kisaruko←▼M. Frithzell

90'▲E. Tveiten←▼J. Voilås

Notodden substitutes

14Berntsen22Grinde3Kisaruko23Tveiten24Jonassen12Grøtterud21Tjomsland

Match Recap: Fram vs Notodden

Notodden beat Fram 3-2 in 2. Division - Group 2 on September 18, 2021.

Goals: M. Frithzell (27'), M. Joof (34'), C. Ifejilika (41'), A. Snibb (49'), J. Voilås (52').

The match was played at Framparken in Larvik.

Fram vs Notodden — 2. Division - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Fram vs Notodden