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Fram Reykjavik vs Ýmir — Cup 2019

Fram Reykjavik
Fram Reykjavik
FT
6 – 0
Ýmir
Ýmir
4/17/2019CupCup · 2nd RoundFramvöllur (Reykjavík)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Fram Reykjavik86%
×Draw9%
Ýmir5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fram Reykjavik
3.81
Ýmir
0.94

Fram Reykjavik creates 305% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

creates per match

Fram Reykjavik
3.38
Ýmir
0.75

allows per match

Fram Reykjavik
1.13
Ýmir
4.25

finishing

Fram Reykjavik+0.00on par
Ýmir+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fram Reykjavik ↓

Ýmir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–13%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–18%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (9%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Fram Reykjavik or draw
95%
Fram Reykjavik or Ýmir
91%
Draw or Ýmir
14%

Winning margin

Fram Reykjavik wins by 2+
70%
Ýmir wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Fram Reykjavik 1+ goals
98%
Fram Reykjavik 2+ goals
88%
Fram Reykjavik 3+ goals
71%
Ýmir 1+ goals
61%
Ýmir 2+ goals
24%
Ýmir 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Fram Reykjavik (draw refunded)
94%
Ýmir (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fram Reykjavik at home — creates 3.38, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

Ýmir away — creates 0.75, concedes 4.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fram Reykjavik attack 3.38 + Ýmir defence 4.25 → ÷2 → 3.81

Ýmir attack 0.75 + Fram Reykjavik defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 86%?"

Fram Reykjavik scores more
86%
level
9%
Ýmir scores more
5%

Fram Reykjavik at 86% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 86% does not mean "Fram Reykjavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fram Reykjavik vs Ýmir

Fram Reykjavik beat Ýmir 6-0 in Cup on April 17, 2019.

The match was played at Framvöllur (Reykjavík).