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Fram Reykjavik vs Kórdrengir — 1. Deild 2018

Fram Reykjavik
Fram Reykjavik
FT
4 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Kórdrengir
Kórdrengir
7/5/20211. Deild1. Deild · Round 10Framvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Fram Reykjavik48%
×Draw22%
Kórdrengir30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fram Reykjavik
1.90
Kórdrengir
1.46

Fram Reykjavik creates 30% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 22 away

creates per match

Fram Reykjavik
2.35
Kórdrengir
1.59

allows per match

Fram Reykjavik
1.33
Kórdrengir
1.45

finishing

Fram Reykjavik+0.00on par
Kórdrengir+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fram Reykjavik ↓

Kórdrengir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Fram Reykjavik or draw
70%
Fram Reykjavik or Kórdrengir
78%
Draw or Kórdrengir
52%

Winning margin

Fram Reykjavik wins by 2+
27%
Kórdrengir wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Fram Reykjavik 1+ goals
85%
Fram Reykjavik 2+ goals
56%
Fram Reykjavik 3+ goals
29%
Kórdrengir 1+ goals
77%
Kórdrengir 2+ goals
43%
Kórdrengir 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Fram Reykjavik (draw refunded)
62%
Kórdrengir (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fram Reykjavik at home — creates 2.35, concedes 1.33 · 43 matches

Kórdrengir away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.45 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fram Reykjavik attack 2.35 + Kórdrengir defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.90

Kórdrengir attack 1.59 + Fram Reykjavik defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Fram Reykjavik scores more
48%
level
22%
Kórdrengir scores more
30%

Fram Reykjavik at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Fram Reykjavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Deild: Fram Reykjavik 4–3 Kórdrengir

Fram Reykjavik beat Kórdrengir 4-3 in 1. Deild on July 5, 2021.

The match was played at Framvöllur in Reykjavík.