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Fraga vs Zuera — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Fraga
Fraga
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Zuera
Zuera
4/17/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 31Estadio de La Estacada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Fraga48%
×Draw29%
Zuera23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fraga
1.29
Zuera
0.80

Fraga creates 61% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 34 away

creates per match

Fraga
1.30
Zuera
0.65

allows per match

Fraga
0.95
Zuera
1.29

finishing

Fraga+0.00on par
Zuera+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fraga ↓

Zuera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Fraga or draw
77%
Fraga or Zuera
71%
Draw or Zuera
52%

Winning margin

Fraga wins by 2+
22%
Zuera wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Fraga 1+ goals
72%
Fraga 2+ goals
37%
Fraga 3+ goals
14%
Zuera 1+ goals
55%
Zuera 2+ goals
19%
Zuera 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Fraga (draw refunded)
67%
Zuera (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fraga at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.95 · 66 matches

Zuera away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.29 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fraga attack 1.30 + Zuera defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.29

Zuera attack 0.65 + Fraga defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Fraga scores more
48%
level
29%
Zuera scores more
23%

Fraga at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Fraga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Fraga 0 – 0 Zuera

Fraga and Zuera drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on April 17, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio de La Estacada in Fraga.