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Fraga vs Utebo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Fraga
Fraga
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Utebo
Utebo
1/12/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 23Estadio de La Estacada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Fraga40%
×Draw29%
Utebo31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fraga
1.21
Utebo
1.02

Fraga creates 19% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 45 away

creates per match

Fraga
1.30
Utebo
1.09

allows per match

Fraga
0.95
Utebo
1.11

finishing

Fraga+0.00on par
Utebo+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fraga ↓

Utebo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Fraga or draw
69%
Fraga or Utebo
71%
Draw or Utebo
60%

Winning margin

Fraga wins by 2+
17%
Utebo wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Fraga 1+ goals
70%
Fraga 2+ goals
34%
Fraga 3+ goals
12%
Utebo 1+ goals
64%
Utebo 2+ goals
27%
Utebo 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Fraga (draw refunded)
57%
Utebo (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fraga at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.95 · 66 matches

Utebo away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.11 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fraga attack 1.30 + Utebo defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.21

Utebo attack 1.09 + Fraga defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Fraga scores more
40%
level
29%
Utebo scores more
31%

Fraga at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Fraga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Fraga 1 – 0 Utebo

Fraga beat Utebo 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on January 12, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio de La Estacada in Fraga.