Fraga 1–0 San Juan Mozarrifar: Result & Stats

Fraga

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

San Juan Mozarrifar

Gil 30'

1/5/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 21Estadio de La Estacada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Fraga61%

×Draw24%

San Juan Mozarrifar15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FragaExpected goals in this matchSan Juan Mozarrifar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

0.70

Fraga

1.69

San Juan Mozarrifar

0.70

Fraga creates 141% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 24 away

1.30

creates per match

0.46

0.95

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Fraga

1.30

San Juan Mozarrifar

0.46

allows per match

Fraga

0.95

San Juan Mozarrifar

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fraga+0.00on par

San Juan Mozarrifar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fraga ↓

San Juan Mozarrifar →

0–09%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–016%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Fraga or draw

85%

Fraga or San Juan Mozarrifar

76%

Draw or San Juan Mozarrifar

39%

Winning margin

Fraga wins by 2+

34%

San Juan Mozarrifar wins by 2+

Team goals

Fraga 1+ goals

82%

Fraga 2+ goals

50%

Fraga 3+ goals

24%

San Juan Mozarrifar 1+ goals

50%

San Juan Mozarrifar 2+ goals

16%

San Juan Mozarrifar 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Fraga (draw refunded)

80%

San Juan Mozarrifar (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Fraga at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.95 · 66 matches

San Juan Mozarrifar away — creates 0.46, concedes 2.08 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Fraga attack 1.30 + San Juan Mozarrifar defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.69

San Juan Mozarrifar attack 0.46 + Fraga defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 61%?"

Fraga scores more

61%

level

24%

San Juan Mozarrifar scores more

15%

Fraga at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Fraga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

Gil

57'

Radwan Rekrouk← Alexis Quibus

64'

Rodri Hernando← Javi Pérez

83'

Javier Cabistañ← Leonardo Rodriguez

86'

Victor Quibus← Dani Pujol

86'

Falo Burriel← Fran Rotellar

Fraga

San

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Miguel Rubio

57'▲Radwan Rekrouk←▼Alexis Quibus

83'▲Javier Cabistañ←▼Leonardo Rodriguez

86'▲Victor Quibus←▼Dani Pujol

Fraga substitutes

RekroukCabistañQuibus

Manager: Nacho Forcén

64'▲Rodri Hernando←▼Javi Pérez

86'▲Falo Burriel←▼Fran Rotellar

San Juan Mozarrifar substitutes

HernandoBurriel

Match Recap: Fraga vs San Juan Mozarrifar

Fraga beat San Juan Mozarrifar 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on January 5, 2020.

Goals: Gil (30').

The match was played at Estadio de La Estacada in Fraga.

Fraga vs San Juan Mozarrifar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Fraga vs San Juan Mozarrifar