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Fraga vs Real Zaragoza II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Fraga
Fraga
CANC
00:00
Real Zaragoza II
Real Zaragoza II
4/5/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 35Estadio de La Estacada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Fraga35%
×Draw29%
Real Zaragoza II37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fraga
1.09
Real Zaragoza II
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 44 away

creates per match

Fraga
1.30
Real Zaragoza II
1.30

allows per match

Fraga
0.95
Real Zaragoza II
0.89

finishing

Fraga+0.00on par
Real Zaragoza II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fraga ↓

Real Zaragoza II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Fraga or draw
63%
Fraga or Real Zaragoza II
71%
Draw or Real Zaragoza II
65%

Winning margin

Fraga wins by 2+
14%
Real Zaragoza II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Fraga 1+ goals
66%
Fraga 2+ goals
30%
Fraga 3+ goals
10%
Real Zaragoza II 1+ goals
68%
Real Zaragoza II 2+ goals
31%
Real Zaragoza II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Fraga (draw refunded)
49%
Real Zaragoza II (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fraga at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.95 · 66 matches

Real Zaragoza II away — creates 1.30, concedes 0.89 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fraga attack 1.30 + Real Zaragoza II defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.09

Real Zaragoza II attack 1.30 + Fraga defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Fraga scores more
35%
level
29%
Real Zaragoza II scores more
37%

Real Zaragoza II at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Real Zaragoza II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Fraga face Real Zaragoza II (Tercera División RFEF - Group 17)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 returns with Fraga hosting Real Zaragoza II. Match starts April 5, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Fraga host Real Zaragoza II at Estadio de La Estacada.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.