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Frøya vs Lokomotiv Oslo — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Frøya
Frøya
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Lokomotiv Oslo
Lokomotiv Oslo
9/3/20223. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Girone 1 - 19Frøya idrettspark kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Frøya41%
×Draw23%
Lokomotiv Oslo36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Frøya
1.76
Lokomotiv Oslo
1.65

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 33 away

creates per match

Frøya
1.38
Lokomotiv Oslo
1.48

allows per match

Frøya
1.81
Lokomotiv Oslo
2.15

finishing

Frøya+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Oslo+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frøya ↓

Lokomotiv Oslo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Frøya or draw
64%
Frøya or Lokomotiv Oslo
77%
Draw or Lokomotiv Oslo
59%

Winning margin

Frøya wins by 2+
21%
Lokomotiv Oslo wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Frøya 1+ goals
83%
Frøya 2+ goals
52%
Frøya 3+ goals
26%
Lokomotiv Oslo 1+ goals
81%
Lokomotiv Oslo 2+ goals
49%
Lokomotiv Oslo 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Frøya (draw refunded)
53%
Lokomotiv Oslo (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frøya at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.81 · 26 matches

Lokomotiv Oslo away — creates 1.48, concedes 2.15 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frøya attack 1.38 + Lokomotiv Oslo defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.76

Lokomotiv Oslo attack 1.48 + Frøya defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Frøya scores more
41%
level
23%
Lokomotiv Oslo scores more
36%

Frøya at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Frøya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 1: Frøya 0–3 Lokomotiv Oslo

Lokomotiv Oslo beat Frøya 3-0 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on September 3, 2022.

The match was played at Frøya idrettspark kunstgress in Hamarvik.