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Frøya vs Førde — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Frøya
Frøya
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Førde
Førde
J. Stjernberg 11'
N. Trollebo 71'
V. Savland 45'
V. Hoynes 26'
4/20/20243. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 3Frøya idrettspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Frøya29%
×Draw22%
Førde49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Frøya
1.50
Førde
1.98

Førde creates 32% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 13 away

creates per match

Frøya
1.38
Førde
2.15

allows per match

Frøya
1.81
Førde
1.62

finishing

Frøya+0.00on par
Førde+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frøya ↓

Førde →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Frøya or draw
51%
Frøya or Førde
78%
Draw or Førde
71%

Winning margin

Frøya wins by 2+
13%
Førde wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Frøya 1+ goals
78%
Frøya 2+ goals
44%
Frøya 3+ goals
19%
Førde 1+ goals
86%
Førde 2+ goals
59%
Førde 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Frøya (draw refunded)
38%
Førde (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frøya at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.81 · 26 matches

Førde away — creates 2.15, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frøya attack 1.38 + Førde defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.50

Førde attack 2.15 + Frøya defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Frøya scores more
29%
level
22%
Førde scores more
49%

Førde at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Førde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
J. Stjernberg
26'
V. Hoynes
45'
V. Savland
71'
N. Trollebo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 1: Frøya 1–3 Førde

Førde beat Frøya 3-1 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on April 20, 2024.

Goals: J. Stjernberg (11'), V. Hoynes (26'), V. Savland (45'), N. Trollebo (71').

The match was played at Frøya idrettspark in Bergen.