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Foz Do Iguacu vs Paranavaí — Paranaense - 2 2025

Foz Do Iguacu
Foz Do Iguacuadvanced
Pens
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Paranavaí
Paranavaí
Breno Henrique 120+5' (pen)
Giovane 120+2' (pen)
Lucao 120+1' (pen)
D. Bahia 72'
Guilherme Truyts 38'
Vitor 120+4' (pen)
Anderson 120+2' (pen)
Miguel Silva 45+4' (pen), 23'
7/6/2025Paranaense - 2Paranaense - 2 · Semi-Finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Foz Do Iguacu44%
×Draw25%
Paranavaí31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Foz Do Iguacu
1.55
Paranavaí
1.26

Foz Do Iguacu creates 23% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 10 away

creates per match

Foz Do Iguacu
2.00
Paranavaí
1.40

allows per match

Foz Do Iguacu
1.13
Paranavaí
1.10

finishing

Foz Do Iguacu+0.00on par
Paranavaí+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Foz Do Iguacu ↓

Paranavaí →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Foz Do Iguacu or draw
69%
Foz Do Iguacu or Paranavaí
75%
Draw or Paranavaí
56%

Winning margin

Foz Do Iguacu wins by 2+
22%
Paranavaí wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Foz Do Iguacu 1+ goals
79%
Foz Do Iguacu 2+ goals
46%
Foz Do Iguacu 3+ goals
20%
Paranavaí 1+ goals
72%
Paranavaí 2+ goals
36%
Paranavaí 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Foz Do Iguacu (draw refunded)
59%
Paranavaí (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Foz Do Iguacu at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

Paranavaí away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Foz Do Iguacu attack 2.00 + Paranavaí defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.55

Paranavaí attack 1.40 + Foz Do Iguacu defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Foz Do Iguacu scores more
44%
level
25%
Paranavaí scores more
31%

Foz Do Iguacu at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Foz Do Iguacu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'
Miguel Silva
38'
Guilherme Truyts
45+4'
Miguel SilvaPenalty
72'
D. Bahia
120+1'
JonathanMissed penalty
120+1'
LucaoPenalty
120+2'
AndersonPenalty
120+2'
GiovanePenalty
120+3'
JonasMissed penalty
120+3'
D. BahiaMissed penalty
120+4'
VitorPenalty
120+4'
D. BahiaMissed penalty
120+5'
MatheusMissed penalty
120+5'
Breno HenriquePenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Foz Do Iguacu vs Paranavaí

Foz Do Iguacu and Paranavaí drew 2-2 in Paranaense - 2 on July 6, 2025.

Goals: Miguel Silva (23', 45+4' pen), Guilherme Truyts (38'), D. Bahia (72'), Lucao (120+1' pen), Anderson (120+2' pen), Giovane (120+2' pen), Vitor (120+4' pen), Breno Henrique (120+5' pen).