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Foz Do Iguacu vs Grêmio Maringá — Paranaense - 2 2020

Foz Do Iguacu
Foz Do Iguacu
FT
7 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Grêmio Maringá
Grêmio Maringá
Rodriguinho 90+1'
Carlos Alberto 67'
Flavio Rene 47', 45+1'
Sandro 40', 16'
Kaua 20'
5/5/2024Paranaense - 2Paranaense - 2 · 1st Phase - 1Estádio do ABC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Foz Do Iguacu70%
×Draw18%
Grêmio Maringá12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Foz Do Iguacu
2.30
Grêmio Maringá
0.82

Foz Do Iguacu creates 180% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 10 away

creates per match

Foz Do Iguacu
2.00
Grêmio Maringá
0.70

allows per match

Foz Do Iguacu
0.94
Grêmio Maringá
2.60

finishing

Foz Do Iguacu+0.00on par
Grêmio Maringá+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Foz Do Iguacu ↓

Grêmio Maringá →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Foz Do Iguacu or draw
88%
Foz Do Iguacu or Grêmio Maringá
82%
Draw or Grêmio Maringá
30%

Winning margin

Foz Do Iguacu wins by 2+
47%
Grêmio Maringá wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Foz Do Iguacu 1+ goals
90%
Foz Do Iguacu 2+ goals
67%
Foz Do Iguacu 3+ goals
40%
Grêmio Maringá 1+ goals
56%
Grêmio Maringá 2+ goals
20%
Grêmio Maringá 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Foz Do Iguacu (draw refunded)
86%
Grêmio Maringá (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Foz Do Iguacu at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

Grêmio Maringá away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Foz Do Iguacu attack 2.00 + Grêmio Maringá defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.30

Grêmio Maringá attack 0.70 + Foz Do Iguacu defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Foz Do Iguacu scores more
70%
level
18%
Grêmio Maringá scores more
12%

Foz Do Iguacu at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Foz Do Iguacu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
Sandro
20'
Kaua
40'
Sandro
45+1'
Flavio Rene
47'
Flavio Rene
67'
Carlos Alberto
90+1'
Rodriguinho

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Foz Do Iguacu vs Grêmio Maringá

Foz Do Iguacu beat Grêmio Maringá 7-0 in Paranaense - 2 on May 5, 2024.

Goals: Sandro (16', 40'), Kaua (20'), Flavio Rene (45+1', 47'), Carlos Alberto (67'), Rodriguinho (90+1').

The match was played at Estádio do ABC in Foz do Iguaçu, Paraná.